'Forgotten' bow is sole bright spot in unmemorable frame

Sep. 27, 2004

By Brian Fuson

The opening for Sony's "The Forgotten" this weekend was memorable indeed as the Julianne Moore starrer was the only bright spot amid a sea of disappointments and a continuing September slump. The supernatural thriller from Revolution Studios debuted in the top spot with an impressive estimate of $22 million, significantly higher than tracking indicated heading into the frame.

Last weekend's top film, Paramount's "Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow," landed in the second spot with an estimated $6.7 million, plummeting a steep 57% from its opening. The groundbreaking film, starring Jude Law and Gwyneth Paltrow, has generated an estimated $25.6 million in its first 10 days.

The sophomore session of Buena Vista's "Mr. 3000" generated an estimated $5 million, down 42% from its opening. After 10 days, the Bernie Mac starrer has scored roughly $15.4 million.

The weekend's only other new wide release was 20th Century Fox's "First Daughter" from Regency Enterprises, which tied Screen Gems' "Resident Evil: Apocalypse" for the fourth slot. The romantic comedy, starring Katie Holmes and helmed by Forest Whitaker, joined the list of underperforming U.S. president's daughter-themed films as it debuted with an unpromising estimate of $4 million from 2,259 theaters.

Looking at the weekend as a whole, the phrase that comes to mind is "how low can you go." The estimated total boxoffice for the top 12 films was an anemic $60.2 million -- down a precipitous 33% from the third weekend after Labor Day last year. The Hollywood Reporter forecasts the total for all films this weekend to be in the high-$60 million-to-low-$70 million range – the lowest-grossing weekend of the year-to-date.

This month contains the three worst weekends for the year-to-date. Beginning with the first session after Labor Day, the boxoffice has been declining and reaching a new low point with each successive weekend. Last year only one weekend generated less than $80 million. This year, each of the last three weekends has fallen short of that level.

While "Forgotten" opened strong, matching the $21.8 million grossed by Screen Gems' "Underworld" during the comparable frame last year, the films lower in the rankings were not as strong. Four films grossed more than $10 million each last year, compared with just one this year.

Next weekend's release of DreamWorks' CG-animated "Shark Tale" and Buena Vista's "Ladder 49" may breathe some new life into the boxoffice and help lift the business out of its present malaise, or at the least put it on the road to recovery.

"I know that this September has been soft for the industry as a whole, but it's been pretty good for us," Sony Pictures Releasing president of distribution Rory Bruer said. About the debut of "Forgotten," Bruer noted: "We would have been happy in the mid-to-high teens, so to open at $22 million absolutely exceeded our expectations. This is a film that felt good every step of the way. We had a terrific star, a cool concept and a terrific campaign."

The debut of "Forgotten" marks the sixth No. 1 opening for Sony this year, the fourth for Revolution Studios, and pushed the distributor past the $1 billion mark in domestic receipts this year (HR 9/23). "It's particularly sweet that it's a Revolution film that pushed us past the $1 billion mark," Bruer said. "It's been a good year for both companies."

In the demographic area, "Forgotten" skewed female and older. Bruer noted that this type of picture has a tendency to hold up fairly well, so he's optimistic about the weeks ahead.

The world of limited releases had glimmers of hope this weekend. The first film from Focus Feature's Rogue Pictures label, the comedy-horror film "Shaun of the Dead" arrived in the eighth slot with a debut of an estimated $3.3 million from just 607 engagements. "Shaun," which pays tribute to George Romero's zombie pictures, averaged a lively $5,437 per theater.

Focus Features' "The Motorcycle Diaries," an R-rated drama about two young men -- one of whom is a young Che Guevara -- on a two-wheel road trip in Latin America, opened with a powerful $157,054. The Walter Salles-helmed "Diaries" averaged a sensational $52,351 per theater.

RBC Radio's "Guiana 1838," an independent film directed and written by first-timer Rohit Jagessar, opened in one location in Ozone Park, N.Y., and grossed an estimated $70,540. The film, about the abolition of slavery in the British West Indies in the 19th century, sold the majority of available seats in advance.

United Artists' "The Yes Men," a political comedy documentary, grossed an estimated $25,000 from three venues, averaging a robust $8,333 per theater.

Buena Vista's "The Last Shot," an R-rated comedy starring Matthew Broderick and Alec Baldwin, opened in 35 houses and took in an estimated $169,000. Helmed by Jeff Nathanson, "Last Shot" averaged $4,829 per theater.

Miramax's "Infernal Affairs," an unrated crime thriller in Cantonese, garnered an estimated $23,907 from five outlets and averaged $4,781 per theater.

In its second weekend, Fine Line's "A Dirty Shame" added 132 theaters, bringing the count to 133. The NC-17-rated film from director John Waters grossed an estimated $450,000, averaging $3,383 per theater, while raising its cume to around $489,000.

It appears that Lion Gate's "Fahrenheit 9/11" theatrical re-emergence will be extremely short-lived as business was rather frosty this weekend. The highly partisan documentary from director Michael Moore added 441 theaters, upping the tally to 603, and grossed an estimated $250,000. The per-theater average was a dismal $415, while the total moved to around $118.7 million.

Miramax's "Shall We Dance?" a remake of the Japanese film of the same name, had 992 sneaks with "Hero" this weekend and generated strong exits, according to a spokesperson for the company. The remake stars Richard Gere, Jennifer Lopez, Susan Sarandon and Stanley Tucci and was directed by Peter Chelsom. "Dance" did best in the big cities and scored 92% in the top-two boxes, with 76% definite recommends, and was 75% female. "Dance" opens Oct. 15.

For the week ending Sept. 23, the national boxoffice was down 11% from the comparable seven-day period last year ($101.9 million vs. $114.9 million), as the year-to-date total holds steady with a nearly 4% lead ($6.91 billion vs. $6.67 billion). Estimated admissions for the year-to-date are statistically tied with last year at this time, being up by less than 1%.