Fake anti-Trump Washington Post papers distributed in D.C.

• Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer also issued a statement, saying: "It was the President who singled-handedly took away DACA and TPS protections in the first place — offering some protections back in exchange for the wall is not a compromise but more hostage taking.”
• Other Democrats and aides echoed that same sentiment and said Trump must reopen the government so the two sides can fully negotiate on border security proposals.

Details: Trump also said the plan, which will be brought to the Senate floor by Majority Leader Mitch McConnell this week, will include funding for several other security measures.

• $800 million in "urgent humanitarian assistance."
• $805 million for drug detection technology ports of entry.
• 2750 additional border agents and law enforcement.
• 75 new immigration judge teams to reduce court backlog of 900,000 cases.
• A new system to allow Central American minors to apply for asylum in their home countries and reform to promote family reunification for unaccompanied children.
• 3 years of legislative relief for 700,000 DACA recipients, which will give them access to work permits, social security numbers and protection from deportation.
• 3-year extension of TPS.
• $5.7 billion for border wall.

At a meeting with reporters, which was attended by Vice President Mike Pence, Homeland Secretary Nielsen, Jared Kushner, chief of staff Mick Mulvaney and head of legislative affairs Shahira Knight, Pence insisted that this is "not an amnesty bill" and that there is "no pathway to citizenship" — likely in an effort to head off backlash from members of Trump's conservative base.

Between the lines: Pence also told reporters that officials had gotten the idea of bringing TPS and DACA to the negotiating table from conversations with "rank and file" Democrats. In other words, as PBS' Yamiche Alcindor notes, the White House is "looking for Dems to break ranks with Pelosi and Schumer and support Trump’s plan."

Go deeper: Behind the scenes of Trump's shutdown compromise

Ben Thompson — founder of Stratechery, and one of the most pioneering online thinkers — points out that neither Ocasio-Cortez's "background nor her position as a first-time representative are ... noteworthy enough to be driving the national political conversation. And yet she is doing exactly that."

• "In short, she is the first — but certainly not the last — of an entirely new archetype: a politician that is not only fueled by the Internet, but born of it."

Antonio García Martínez — author of "Chaos Monkeys," about Silicon Valley — wrote in Wired that she's "a harbinger of a new American political reality":

• "[W]hen a 29-year-old former bartender of Puerto Rican descent beats a senior Democratic leader of the House, and then proceeds to set the political agenda during her first week in office, it’s more than a cute social media story."
• "AOC is one answer to the bigger question of how social media impacts not just the portrayal of political power, but its seizure and exercise."

The main takeaways:

• Among 2020 Democratic hopefuls, Sen. Kamala Harris (combining her Senate and personal accounts) had the highest Twitter engagement at 4.7 million interactions over the last 30 days — but that's still way behind Ocasio-Cortez.
• Even former President Barack Obama was far behind Ocasio-Cortez, at 5.3 million interactions (but she's a lot more active on Twitter).
• Other notable Democrats:
• Bernie Sanders: 3.2m (combined Senate and personal account)
• Nancy Pelosi: 2.5m
• Chuck Schumer: 1.9m
• Elizabeth Warren: 1.5m (combined Senate and personal account)
• Beto O'Rourke: 1.5m
• News organizations' metrics do not include numbers from their star journalists. CNN's Jim Acosta generated 2.2 million interactions, compared to the network's 3.3 million.
• On the right, individual personalities out-index partisan news organizations. The biggest conservative megaphones — aside from the president — are Charlie Kirk (7.8 million interactions) and Donald Trump Jr. (2.4m)
• The volume of tweets is an important variable to consider:
• Trump: 9.1 tweets per day
• Ocasio-Cortez: 7.2
• Harris: 10.5
• Obama: 0.4
• CNN: 136

Two notes about the data: Not listed is Fox News, which has boycotted Twitter since November. These numbers do not account for Twitter activity from bots.

Note: This article was updated on Jan. 19 to reflect the most recent data.

• Jared Kushner and Mike Pence have led the crafting of this deal and the negotiations with members, according to White House officials. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) told reporters he had proposed the idea of a DACA-TPS swap to Trump in December, and that the president called it "interesting."

The backdrop: A source privy to the negotiations told me the inflection point for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell was the letter from Nancy Pelosi telling Trump not to deliver the State of the Union. McConnell had been saying all along that Pelosi and Trump needed to negotiate because one needed to put a bill on the House floor and one needed to sign it — two people with singular power.

• But after Pelosi’s letter, the source said, it became clear to McConnell she was “never going to get off her position and some other spark needed to happen.”

McConnell told the president that it was his view that Pelosi was never going to move. She would and could not negotiate on border funding because of her caucus, and Trump needed to be the one to put something forward he would sign so that McConnell would have the presidential backing to bring it to the floor.

• McConnell also encouraged Trump to make the offer tantalizing to Democrats; it couldn’t be something that only Trump would sign and Republicans would support, but something that could win over some Democrats.
• The Pence-Kushner-McConnell meeting on Thursday night solidified the plan. McConnell did not try to write the bill for them; this bill is the culmination of Kushner and Pence’s conversations with some Democrats and an inventory of proposals they discussed. Democratic whip Dick Durbin is Kushner’s closest Democratic ally in the Senate after they worked together on criminal justice reform, according to White House officials.

The big picture: Advocates for the plan argue that by offering the new proposal, Trump is showing he’s willing to negotiate while Pelosi remains unmoved.  But even some top Republicans are skeptical Trump's overture will be enough to break the logjam.

• The story, as written, was as clean as it gets: Trump directed Cohen to lie about the Trump Tower in Moscow project, and there’s tons of evidence to support that.
• Very rarely has a story been so unequivocal — usually there are more hedges and acknowledgments of what isn't known.
• And unlike most other reportage in this saga, this accused the president of a felony — a very different bar.

Democrats read the story and began immediately dreaming up articles of impeachment.

• Even some conservatives joined the "If true" chorus. Erick Erickson covered his bases: "If this is true, President Trump has committed an impeachable offense. ... [B]ut I would tread cautiously."
• The two BuzzFeed reporters —Jason Leopold and Anthony Cormier — have broken important news previously on the Russia beat, which is why major outlets took this report seriously.

BuzzFeed asserted that the accusation was supported by copious documentary evidence that would’ve cleanly fit attorney general nominee Bill Barr’s on-the-record definition of obstruction: internal Trump Organization "emails, text messages, and a cache of other documents."

• The WashPost reports: "Mueller’s denial, according to people familiar with the matter, aims to make clear that none of those statements in the story are accurate."
• The N.Y. Times got similar guidance: "One person familiar with Mr. Cohen’s testimony to the special counsel’s prosecutors said that Mr. Cohen did not state that the president had pressured him to lie to Congress."

Garrett M. Graff of WIRED, in an email to Axios, pointed out the new political context for journalistic bombshells:

• "You have to think that the special counsel's office is thinking through how to respond to press reports in the era of a Democratic House — they need to now set reasonable (and timely) expectations in order to ensure that Congress doesn't [go] off the rails."
• Graff told me the statement appears to be very careful, disputing specific — although unspecified — allegations.

Some of the coverage suggested end times for Trump:

• But now the "fake news" accusers are dunking on the press. Sean Hannity used a red "BuzzFeed Busted" graphic at the top of his Fox News show.
• Trump tweeted last night: "A very sad day for journalism, but a great day for our Country!"
• And this morning: "Many people are saying that the Mainstream Media will have a very hard time restoring credibility because of the way they have treated me over the past 3 years (including the election lead-up)"
• Ultimately, Buzzfeed is reporting, based on two anonymous sources, that the president committed a felony. That’s an enormous claim to hang on two anonymous sources.

Be cautious: This story is moving so fast.

• In the next 24 hours, BuzzFeed’s sources could retract their claims or corroborate them.
• Relevant emails could become public, other outlets could find more on this — who knows.
• Some pundits and lawmakers rushed to call this story the death knell of Trump’s presidency. Don't make the same mistake about BuzzFeed — or journalism.

P.S. My email exchange with BuzzFeed Editor-in-Chief Ben Smith:

• How can you stand fully behind your reporting when Mueller says it's at least partly wrong?
• We literally don't know what the special counsel is referring to. 
• Should someone lose their job if you or the reporters were wrong in accusing the president of a felony? 
• And I'm not going to speculate.

Smith said in a phoner with MSNBC's Rachel Maddow: "This is a line of reporting that has been repeatedly vindicated."

Go deeper:

• BuzzFeed: Trump told Cohen to lie to Congress about Moscow tower
• Democrats bring up impeachment after BuzzFeed's new Trump report
• What we now know about Don Jr. and Russia

Why it matters: On Sept. 7, 2017, Don Jr. testified to the Senate Intelligence Committee that he knew "very little" about the deal to build a Trump Tower Moscow, and that he was only "peripherally aware" of it.

• The BuzzFeed report contradicts that. It suggests Don Jr. lied to Congress — a charge to which Michael Cohen has already pleaded guilty.

The big picture: Last August, The Washington Post reported that President Trump was "fearful" that his eldest son "inadvertently may have wandered into legal ­jeopardy."

Here's a guide to the known knowns surrounding Don Jr. and Russia:

• We know that in 2008, Trump Jr. told a real-estate conference: "In terms of high-end product influx into the U.S., Russians make up a pretty disproportionate cross-section of a lot of our assets."
• We know that in May 2016, Trump Jr. dined at the same NRA event as Aleksander Torshin, the deputy chairman of the Central Bank of Russia. We know that Russian national Maria Butina has pleaded guilty to trying to infiltrate the NRA to promote Russian interests, and that Torshin was her manager.
• We know that in June 2016, Trump Jr. met with a group of Russians, including a Kremlin-linked lawyer, at Trump Tower after being promised dirt on Hillary Clinton.
• We know that in March 2017, Trump Jr. told the New York Times: “Did I meet with people that were Russian? I’m sure, I’m sure I did. ... But none that were set up. None that I can think of at the moment.”
• We know that when told about the dirt and how it was "part of Russia and its government's support" for Trump, Trump Jr. responded: "[I]f it's what you say I love it especially later in the summer."
• We know that Trump Jr.'s explanations for the meeting shifted several times. First, he said he had the meeting because he was told it might yield "information helpful to the campaign," but that it ended up being "primarily" about adoptions. When confronted with more reporting, Trump Jr. issued a second statement saying he was promised compromising information about Clinton, but that none was provided.
• We know that in August 2016, Trump Jr. met at Trump Tower with Republican donor Erik Prince, two Gulf emissaries and an Israeli social media specialist who pitched him on the idea of a social media manipulation effort to help elect his father.
• We know that in his Senate testimony, Trump Jr. said that no foreign nationals besides Russians offered assistance to the Trump campaign.
• We know that in October 2016, Trump Jr. exchanged Twitter DMs with WikiLeaks asking about the rumored release of hacked emails from Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta.
• We know that in October 2016, Trump Jr. was paid at least $50,000 to give a speech at a pro-Russian think tank that has nominated Russian President Vladimir Putin for the Nobel Peace Prize.

When asked for comment, a person close to the Trump Organization with knowledge of the matter said that the BuzzFeed story is “completely false and unsubstantiated and appears to be based primarily on information provided by Michael Cohen.”

• Note: The BuzzFeed report claims the special counsel learned Trump directed Cohen to lie through "interviews with multiple witnesses from the Trump Organization and internal company emails, text messages, and a cache of other documents," before having the allegation confirmed by Cohen himself.

Go deeper:

• BuzzFeed: Trump told Cohen to lie to Congress about Moscow tower
• The evolution of Trump's collusion denials
• What we now know about Trump and Russia

By the numbers:

• Gen Z is the only generation in which a majority of self-identified Republicans says government should be more active in solving problems.
• More than half of Gen Z Republicans said increased racial and ethnic diversity is good for society. That's a theme that the current GOP has struggled with, but a more diverse party will be critical to its survival, as almost half of the post-Millennial generation is non-white.
• 38% said they believe climate change is caused by human activity, compared to less than a third of Millennial Republicans.
• 43% said that African-Americans are treated less fairly than whites in the U.S., a jump of 13 percentage points from the previous generation.
• Yet 60% still approved of Trump's job as president.

The big picture: Most of Generation Z isn't even old enough to vote, and their political views could change as they get older. But this generation has already been marked by significant political activism.

• The Parkland high school students launched an influential gun control campaign.
• Six teens ran for governor in Kansas.
• There were efforts to lower the voting age to 16 in D.C. last year.
• And young voter turnout in the midterms surged in many states.

The bottom line: Maybe the era of big government isn't over after all.

That same WSJ story also excited markets by reporting...

My thought bubble: Officials denied the report, but it jibes with what I have been hearing about continuing dissension within the U.S. side and an overall softening in the quest to get a deal. But preemptively backing down would be a signal of eagerness to Beijing.

The revelation that Jared Kushner is involved in the China negotiations is a very interesting part of that WSJ story:

Meanwhile, the Chinese are offering to ramp up purchases of U.S. goods to reduce the trade deficit to zero by 2024, Bloomberg reported Friday morning.

• Quick take: Trump, as we know, is all about the trade deficit, and it is much easier for the Chinese to buy their way into a cease fire while avoiding any of the difficult structural reforms the U.S. has demanded.

The bottom line: As I wrote last week, I expect that the Chinese offer will fall far short of what U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer wants, but using a mixture of big purchase commitments, unofficial lobbying, flattery, and headline concessions will ultimately prove enough for Trump.

The big question: Will the Chinese put the possible extradition from Canada of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou on the table as a last-minute ask to close the deal?

Go deeper: The U.S. and China Are Hatching a Plan to Reopen Chicken Trade (WSJ)

The location of the summit has not been announced, but President Trump met for about 90 minutes in the Oval Office today with Kim Yong-chol, North Korea's lead negotiator in denuclearization talks.

• Bill Bishop notes in Axios China: "I would not be be surprised if a meeting between Trump and China President Xi Jinping is added around this. The Chinese want another Xi-Trump face to face to close a trade deal before March 1."

The big picture:

• Kim has stepped further out of his shell, improving relations with South Korea and China and establishing himself as a global player.
• “Maximum pressure” against his regime has faded, but sanctions remain in place.
• The North Korean leader has rejected the U.S. premise that denuclearization must come first, followed by sanctions relief. He has spurned what most experts consider step 1: documentation of his nuclear assets.

What's next: The Washington Post notes that Trump might come to the table with an offer, potentially including a declaration of the end of the Korean War, to secure a breakthrough.

The bottom line: We’re back where we started, with Trump and Kim taking center stage. Their rhetoric toward each other has been warm.

• But as Van Jackson, a former Pentagon strategist and author of the new book "On the Brink: Trump, Kim, and the Threat of Nuclear War," told Axios: “You are not in a stable situation if you rely on the whims and the caprice of individual leaders to prevent nuclear war.”